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Geo Politics

Oil history

March 19, 20265 min readAziz Saif[email protected]

Black Gold war -


BlackGoldWar_Report_2026 by News on Deshbakh Youtube episode

The report argues that oil remains the most powerful geopolitical weapon in the world economy, and the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis marks the most serious oil shock since the 1973 Arab embargo, with potential to push prices toward 200 dollars per barrel and trigger global recession.

Core storyline

  • The report traces how oil evolved from Drake’s 1859 Pennsylvania well through World War II, the 1953 Iran coup, and the 1973 Arab oil embargo to become the central lever of global power.

  • It shows that every major attempt to challenge Western control over oil or dollar pricing (e.g., Iran, Iraq, Venezuela) has been met with coups, sanctions, or military action.

Current 2026 crisis

  • In March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, around 150 tankers are stranded, and Brent crude has jumped to about 100 dollars per barrel with warnings it could reach 200.

  • Kuwait oil supplies, Qatar gas production, and key Saudi Aramco refineries are halted or suspended, while IEA emergency reserves are near exhausted and Bab el‑Mandeb is threatened.

Dollar vs yuan dimension

  • The report explains the petrodollar system, where global oil trade in dollars sustains persistent demand for the US currency and enables expansive dollar printing and financial sanctions power.

  • Iran’s “yuan masterstroke” in 2026—allowing only yuan‑paid tankers through Hormuz—is framed as a direct assault on dollar dominance and a boost to China’s yuan in global energy trade.

Structural dependence on oil

  • Despite growth in renewables and some electric transport, the report stresses that oil underpins roughly 90% of world trade, 100% of aviation, 99% of plastics, and 40% of food via fertilizers and logistics.

  • Because global refineries and supply chains are locked into Middle Eastern grades and seaborne chokepoints like Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb, even partial disruptions have outsized economic impact.

Key takeaway

  • The conclusion is that “oil is still oil”: modern economies, global trade, and currency power are still anchored in hydrocarbons, and the 2026 Hormuz showdown proves that wars, sanctions, and regime changes continue to revolve around control of black gold.

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